Looking at most churches in decline from the outside, the decline seems obvious. But when you are inside the decline, it is easy to miss.

The same is true when it comes to our health or relationships. We don’t see ourselves putting on 20 pounds, but those around us do. We don’t see our marriage grow stale or difficult, but those around us might see it.

The same happens in churches. Those within the church who show up weekly don’t always see the signs of decline or even feel it. Those outside of the church or those who visit see it.

When I interviewed with CCC, I received an almost 200-page report from the organization they used for the intentional interim time. At its peak, CCC had nearly 600 people in 2013, but then it began a decline. Many of the comments from people within the church led to the reality that most people were unaware of the decline.

This happens in many different churches for different reasons. People move away, retire, change churches, or stop attending church. But as you show up week in and week out (or, as the most recent stats say, “1.8 times a month”), you might miss when people are gone.

What turns the tide? 

How do you lead so that this does not happen or so that you are aware when it begins to happen?

The first is to define reality and never lose sight of it, even when it is painful. Jim Collins says, “The leader’s first job is to face the brutal facts and not lose hope.”

This is easier said than done. 

Often, we don’t want to face reality because we allow it to happen, and it reflects poorly on us. Or, as leaders, we think we need to constantly be positive and optimistic about the future. While your mood does determine a lot for your team and organization, you must face the brutal facts and not lose hope. 

Another piece that can be difficult when facing the reality in front of you is if you are new to your church or role and didn’t cause the reality you are facing, but your predecessor did. This situation is fraught with landmines. As a new leader, you come into the church with fresh eyes and see what many others no longer see or no longer want to see. And while you might be correct in how you see reality (at least you think you are), it is only your perspective. For this leader, ask curious questions and listen. The best way to help a church face reality is for them to see reality on their own, not because you tell them reality. 

What if you are the pastor who led a church into decline, and you are now seeing reality? Is it too late? The short answer is no, but the road ahead is more challenging. 

Any church experiencing decline has been in decline for years, sometimes decades. This means that unhealthy leadership patterns, community, etc., have slowly begun to develop roots and become the church culture or “the way we do things here.” Breaking these patterns is incredibly difficult and takes intentional steps because you will be undoing old patterns and constantly saying, “We don’t do that around here anymore.” 

This leads to the second idea to turn the tide…

The second is to think in terms of years rather than days. Leaders and churches are often caught up in the daily rush of what is next. After all, Sunday comes every seven days. You might be in a season where you need to think in days because your church is in steep decline or you are running out of money. But most churches are not in that situation. 

Rabbi Jonathan Sacks said, “Individuals count the days, but leaders must count the years.” This means pastors and leaders must consistently think not only about the coming Sunday or quarter but also about the next five, ten, or twenty years. Where will the church be next year? What does this decision mean five years from now?

Many churches will make decisions around their facilities. These huge decisions can tie a church to debt and hamstring it. Adding that new wing, or not, how does that impact your church in five years? While you can convince yourself about the growth that may come from adding to your building or building a new building (and it might), there will also be some unintended consequences that you must be aware of. If not for yourself, do it for those who will inherit the debt. 

Another one is staffing. You need to hire a new staff member, and finding great staff members is challenging. So, you settle. They aren’t exactly what you want, but you need someone. The hard truth about the wrong hire is that it can dearly cost your church and leadership. The wrong hire can set you back years in terms of vision, momentum, and cost well into the six figures. You are not just hiring someone for today but for the coming years and potentially decades. They will help or hurt your vision and the culture you create or change.